Commodity News
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Corn Futures Falling Out of NASS Report
Corn futures dropped in tandem with the bean and wheat markets on Friday. The 7 ? to 11 ? cent losses left Dec at a net ? cent loss for the week and a 1 ? cent loss for the month of September.?
Dalian Corn Prices were 14 yuan (6c) higher going into the Golden Week holiday break at 2,616 yuan/MT (~$9.10/bu). The Dalian market will resume activity 10/9.?
CFTC’s weekly update showed spec traders added 22k shorts for a 168,606 contract net short as of 9/26. The commercials added 39.3k new hedges during the week, with the additional new longs weakening the group’s net short to 16,422 contracts.?
USDA’s National weekly Ethanol report showed cash prices were mostly higher for the week, within 10c, from $2.20-$2.38/gal regionally. The DDGS market saw prices from $185 to $220/ton regionally, mostly $2-$10 lower. Corn oil quotes were also mostly lower for the week with 1-3c losses to 66-70 c/lb regionally.?
USDA’s quarterly update showed 1.361 bbu of corn stocks on Sep 1. That was 77.7 mbu tighter than the average trade guess and was 90.7 mbu below the WASDE estimate. Implied Q4 demand was 2.746 bbu, compared to the average trade guess of 2.667 bbu; Q4 demand last year was 226 mbu greater though stocks were 15.6 mbu looser. The carryout and use discrepancies led USDA to revise the 2022 crop size, with a 0.1 bpa higher yield (173.4) and a 100k acre cut for harvested area. On net that left the final 2022 production at 13.715 bbu (-15 mbu).?
Dec 23 Corn??closed at $4.76 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash?? was $4.47 5/8, down 13 1/4 cents,
Mar 24 Corn??closed at $4.91 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,
May 24 Corn??closed at $5.00 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Report Day Losses for Soybean Futures
The Friday soy session closed with sharp losses, primarily in the meal.?Soymeal futures settled over $10 in the red with 2.6% to 4.2% losses on the day. Bean prices dropped by 10 to 25 ? cents after seeing the quarterly USDA data. That flipped Nov to a net 21c loss for the week, as the contract finished with a net 93 ? cent loss for the month.?Soybean Oil futures ended the trade day with triple digit losses of as much as 2.1%. USDA reported the B100 cash price for the week at $4.85 in MN and $6.15 in IL, both UNCH for the week.?
Dalian No2 Soybean Prices were down 47 yuan (15c) into their holiday break @ (~$17.58/bu). Dalian will resume trade 10/9.
Commitment of Traders data showed managed money funds closed existing soybean longs and added new shorts during the week that ended 9/26. That reduced the group’s net long in soybeans by 15.8k contracts to 30k. Commercial soybean hedgers reduced their net short by 14.5k contracts to 100,626. The weekly update put spec traders at 59,196 (+3.3k) contracts net long in soymeal and 35,050 (-12k) contracts net long in soy oil as of 9/26.?
NASS counted 268.2 mbu of soybean supplies for September 1st – with 72 mbu on farms and 196 off farm. The trade was looking for a 244 mbu supply, and the WASDE projection was for 250. Q4 disappearance was implied at 528.2 mbu, compared to 693.1 mbu last year. NASS also revised the 2022 crop size downward by 5.93 mbu on lower harvested area and a 0.1 bpa yield increase to 4.270 bbu, 86.2m acres, and 49.6 bpa respectively.?
Nov 23 Soybeans??closed at $12.75, down 25 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash?? was $12.09 1/2, down 25 5/8 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans??closed at $12.94 1/2, down 24 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans??closed at $13.10 1/4, down 21 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Limit Losses for Hog Futures
October and Dec hogs closed down by their $3.75 limit on Friday after the bearish Hogs & Pigs report, and will see $5.50 trading limits on Monday. The other front months also closed triple digits lower in reaction to the Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. December hogs were a net 40 cents weaker for the week and were down a net $2.55 through the month. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $74.76 on Friday, down by $1.86. The CME Lean Hog Index stayed at $86.14 on 9/27 for no change.?
China’s markets are closed through 10/9 for Golden Week.?Dalian Live Hog Prices?were 60 yuan higher to 16,610 yuan/MT (~$103.32 cwt.).
CFTC’s weekly CoT report had managed money firms closing longs in lean hogs during the week. In addition to net new selling, that left the group 8.5k contracts less net long at 32.5k contracts for 9/26.?
Pork cutout futures settled 3% to 4.3% lower on Friday, and will also trade under expanded limits after the weekend. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $97.23 on Friday afternoon, up by 31 cents on stronger picnic cuts.?USDA estimated the week’s federally inspected hog slaughter at 2.604m head through Saturday. That is up 67k head for the week and is 119k head more than the same week last year. The yearly slaughter total remains 1.4% ahead of last year’s pace.?
Oct 23 Hogs??closed at $80.200, down $3.750,
Dec 23 Hogs??closed at $71.775, down $3.750
Oct 23 Pork Cutout??closed at $91.300, down $3.375,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cotton Retreats into Weekend
Cotton futures closed 0.8% to 1.8% in the red on Friday. The December contract ended 13 points off the low for the day after a 227 point trading range. Dec futures were still up 124 points for the week, but lost 67 points for the month.?
The weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money with a 45,520 contract net long in cotton for 9/26. That was a 1.2k contract weaker net long primarily via net new selling. Commercial cotton hedgers added 4.7k new longs and 1.2k new shorts for a 91,911 contract net short.?
USDA reported 108,555 bales were classed for the week for 859,448 on the season. That is down from last year’s 945,138 bales.?
The USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review had 17,515 bales sold at spot for the week with an average price of 83.15 cents/lb. The season’s sales reached 87,927 bales, compared to 26.3k last year. The Cotlook A Index increased 10 points on 9/28 to 98.35 cents/lb. FSA reduced the AWP for cotton by 2 points for the week to 72.27 cents/lb.?ICE Certified Stocks increased another 2.4k bales to 37,512 as of 9/28.?
Dec 23 Cotton??closed at 87.15, down 156 points,
Mar 24 Cotton??closed at 87.92, down 133 points,
May 24 Cotton??closed at 88.5, down 103 points
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cattle Drop into Weekend
Cattle ended the last trade day of the week with another triple digit pullback. December’s $2.50 loss on Friday left the contract $3.42 lower for the week but still $3.12 higher for the month after new all-time highs were set last week. USDA had Friday sales from $181 to $185, noting the bulk in the South was $183 for the week and the North was mostly $184 ($290 dressed). Feeder cattle futures settled Friday’s session $1.85 to $2.77 lower. October closed the downside gap from Sep’s expiration and finished the week at a net $6.67 loss and flipped red by $3.55 for the month’s move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $252.20 on 9/27 -?September feeder cattle went off the board at $252.32.
Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders with a 101,860 contract net long for 9/26. That was 1,141 contracts weaker for the week. The funds were 3.7k contracts less net long in feeders, to 12,563 contracts.?
Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were weaker on Friday afternoon with a 73c drop in Choice and a $1.40 drop in Select. The Chc/Sel spread was $24.74. The week’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 612,000 head through Saturday. That is 13k head lighter wk/wk and is down 55k head from the same week last year. USDA has the YTD pace down 4.4% yr/yr.
Oct 23 Cattle??closed at $184.200, down $2.300,
Dec 23 Cattle??closed at $187.925, down $2.500,
Feb 24 Cattle??closed at $192.500, down $2.125,
Oct 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $252.475, down $2.250
Nov 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $254.900, down $2.775
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Sharp Losses, New Lows for Wheat
Many of the front month wheat futures saw new LoC lows on Friday. SRW dropped 20 to 37 cents with a 6.4% loss in the Dec contract. That finished the week down by 38 cents and 60 ? cents lower for the month. Sep ’24 HRW futures printed a LoC low on Friday, though the front months were their lowest since Sep ’21 on 20c losses. December HRW fell 47 ? cents for the week and closed the month of September down by 63 ? cents. Spring wheat futures were down 1.8% to 5% on Friday, leaving the Dec contract at a 53 ? cent loss for the week, flipping the month’s move to a 51 ? cent loss.
CFTC reported managed money traders were 96,384 contracts net short in CBT wheat as of 9/26. That was little changed on net through the week with 3.3k new longs and 2.9k new shorts added. Spec traders were shown 4k contracts more net short in KC wheat via net new selling to 16.4k contracts. Managed money traders were 15,657 contracts net short in MGE wheat as of 9/26.?
The quarterly Grain Stocks report had 1.78 bbu of wheat supplies on Sep 1. That was 1.7 mbu looser compared to last year, as the average trade guess was to sees 8 mbu tighter. Q1 disappearance was implied as 1.198 bbu, compared to 1.08 bbu last year. Not much market moving there.?
The Small Grains summary had wheat production listed as 1.812 bbu, compared to the 1.734 bbu reported in the Sep Crop Production data. The trade was looking for a 2 mbu cut and got a 78 mbu bearish surprise. By class, NASS put 601 mbu for HRW (compared to the prior 585 forecast and the 584 mbu average trade guess), SRW at 449 mbu (from 413 previously), 505 for other spring (450 previously), and 59 mbu for durum (from 57).?
The European Commission estimates wheat production at 125.3 MMT, down 400k MT from their prior figure. Exports were left at 32 MMT.?
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat??closed at $5.41 1/2, down 37 1/4 cents,
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat??closed at $5.73 1/2, down 33 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat??was $4.55 5/8, down 37 cents,
Dec 23 KCBT Wheat??closed at $6.63 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat??was $5.92, down 21 1/4 cents,
Dec 23 MGEX Wheat??closed at $7.09 1/4, down 37 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Corn Futures Falling Out of NASS Report
The front month futures are trading with 3 ? to 7 cent losses through midday after seeing the quarterly numbers. Corn prices were fractionally mixed into the report.??
USDA flashed a 223.5k MT private export sale for 23/24 corn to Mexico this morning. Separately, Iran reportedly booked 120k MT of optional origin corn via tender. Algeria reportedly booked 60k MT via tender as well.??
USDA’s quarterly update showed 1.361 bbu of corn stocks on Sep 1. That was 77.7 mbu tighter than the average trade guess and was 90.7 mbu below the WASDE estimate. Implied Q4 demand was 2.746 bbu, compared to the average trade guess of 2.667 bbu; Q4 demand last year was 226 mbu greater though stocks were 15.6 mbu looser. The carryout and use discrepancies led USDA to revise the 2022 crop size, with a 0.1 bpa higher yield (173.4) and a 100k acre cut for harvested area. On net that left the final 2022 production at 13.715 bbu (-15 mbu).? ?
BAGE estimated Argentina’s corn planting pace at 7% complete for the 7.3m HA.??
| Dec 23 Corn?? | is at $4.82 1/2, down 6 cents,? |
| Nearby Cash??? | is at $4.54, down 5 7/8 cents,? |
| Mar 24 Corn?? | is at $4.97 1/4, down 6 cents,? |
| May 24 Corn?? | is at $5.06 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cattle Back to Red for Friday
Front month fat cattle futures are trading lower through midday with losses of as much as $2.45. That has the board back to the lows for the week and a net $3.37 loss Fri/Fri so far. USDA confirmed Thursday cash sales from $183 to $185, reporting the bulk of Southern trade near $183 and Northern trade near $184. Feeder cattle futures are down another $1.97 to $2.95 so far. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $252.20 on 9/27, down by $1.07.?
Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed again Friday morning widening the Chc/Sel spread to $25.08 on a 90c increase for Choice and an 11 cent discount for Select. Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 505,000 head for the week through Thursday. That is 7k head more than last week’s pace, but trails the same week last year by 2k head. ?
| Oct 23 Cattle?? | are at $184.725, down $1.775,? |
| Dec 23 Cattle?? | are at $188.225, down $2.200,? |
| Feb 24 Cattle?? | are at $192.825, down $1.800,? |
| Cash Cattle Index? | was $183.000, from $183.00 last week? |
| Oct 23 Feeder Cattle?? | are at $252.325, down $2.400? |
| Nov 23 Feeder Cattle?? | are at $255.050, down $2.625? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Midday Losses in Cotton Futures
After starting the Friday session firmer, the midday prints are back down by triple digits. Dec is 157 points in the red through midday, setting up for a net 116 point gain for the week.?
FAS reported 55,323 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 9/21. That was a low for the MY, but was up by 83% yr/yr. Cotton shipments were 159.4k RBs for the week, bringing accumulated exports to 1.35m RBs. That is 26% behind last year’s pace.??
The Cotlook A Index increased 10 points on 9/28 to 98.35 cents/lb. FSA reduced the AWP for cotton by 2 points for the week to 72.27 cents/lb. ICE Certified Stocks increased another 2.5k bales to 35,126 as of 9/27.? ?
| Dec 23 Cotton?? | is at 87.3, down 141 points,? |
| Mar 24 Cotton?? | is at 88.04, down 121 points,? |
| May 24 Cotton?? | is at 88.59, down 94 points? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Hogs Falling at Midday
Friday’s trade out of the quarterly report has futures giving back the entirety of Thursday’s recovery, and futures are back to new lows for the week’s move. Dec is at a net 40c loss so far Fri/Fri. ?USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $1.73 weaker to $76.53. CME’s 9/26 Lean Hog Index dropped another 17 cents to $86.14.??
The Quarterly H&P update showed the hog herd was 74.319m head on September 1st. That was up 0.26% from Sep ’22, compared to the average trade guess for a 1% drop. June 1 inventory was revised 350,000 head higher, with the March 1 inventory up 455,000 head, which offsets some of the miss from the average pre-report estimate. The breeding herd was lower yr/yr by 1.2%, matching the average trade guess. NASS showed the June-Aug pig crop was 34.229m head, a surprise 0.4% increase yr/yr compared to the 1.4% decrease expected. Pigs/litter jumped to 11.61 vs. 11.13 last year. Farrowing intentions for Sep-Nov were listed as 2.93m head, down 162k (-5.2%), and for Dec-Feb as 2.912m head (-1.4%).??
Pork cutout futures are down triple digits with a 4% loss in the Dec contract. USDA’s National Pork Cutout Value was another 28 cents weaker this morning to $96.64. USDA estimated the FI hog slaughter at 1.923m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.938m last week, and is 1,000 head lighter than the same week last year. ?
| Oct 23 Hogs?? | are at $80.325, down $3.625,? |
| Dec 23 Hogs?? | are at $71.775, down $3.750? |
| Oct 23 Pork Cutout?? | is at $92.500, down $2.175,? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Double Digit Losses for Midday Bean Market
After seeing NASS data, the soybean futures dropped double digits. The board is a nickel off the low at midday, but prices are still 12 ? to 22 ? cents in the red. Soymeal futures are also trading lower, led by a 4% loss in the October contract. Midday Soybean Oil futures are also red, though losses are limited to 89 points so far.?
NASS counted 268.2 mbu of soybean supplies for September 1st – with 72 mbu on farms and 196 off farm. The trade was looking for a 244 mbu supply, and the WASDE projection was for 250. Q4 disappearance was implied at 528.2 mbu, compared to 693.1 mbu last year. NASS also revised the 2022 crop size downward by 5.93 mbu on lower harvested area and a 0.1 bpa yield increase to 4.270 bbu, 86.2m acres, and 49.6 bpa respectively.??
| Nov 23 Soybeans?? | are at $12.77, down 23 1/2 cents,? |
| Nearby Cash??? | is at $12.12 3/4, down 23 3/8 cents,? |
| Jan 24 Soybeans?? | are at $12.96 3/4, down 22 1/2 cents,? |
| Mar 24 Soybeans?? | are at $13.11 1/4, down 20 1/4 cents,? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
4% Losses for Friday Wheat Futures
The midday wheat market is trading 14 ? to 24 ? cents lower in Chicago, as the Dec contract’s 4.5% loss is a life of new contract low. HRW futures are trading 9 to 15 cents weaker at midday, also working at contract lows not seen since 2021. Spring wheats are down by 13 ? to 25 ? cents so far as the Dec contract is down 3.4%.? ?
The quarterly Grain Stocks report had 1.78 bbu of wheat supplies on Sep 1. That was 1.7 mbu looser compared to last year, as the average trade guess was to sees 8 mbu tighter. Q1 disappearance was implied as 1.198 bbu, compared to 1.08 bbu last year.??
The Small Grains summary had wheat production listed as 1.812 bbu, compared to the 1.734 bbu reported in the Sep Crop Production data. The trade was looking for a 2 mbu cut. By class, NASS put 601 mbu for HRW (compared to the prior 585 forecast and the 584 mbu average trade guess), SRW at 449 mbu (from 413 previously), 505 for other spring (450 previously), and 59 mbu for durum (from 57).??
The European Commision estimates wheat production at 125.3 MMT, down 400k MT from their prior figure. Exports were left at 32 MMT.??
| Dec 23 CBOT Wheat?? | is at $5.57 1/4, down 21 1/2 cents,? |
| Mar 24 CBOT Wheat?? | is at $5.87 3/4, down 18 3/4 cents,? |
| Cash SRW Wheat?? | is at $4.70 1/4, down 21 3/8 cents,? |
| Dec 23 KCBT Wheat?? | is at $6.73 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents,? |
| Cash HRW Wheat?? | is at $6.02 5/8, down 11 3/4 cents,? |
| Dec 23 MGEX Wheat?? | is at $7.22, down 25 cents,? |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Corn Setting a Penny Red into Report Day
Corn prices are fractionally to 1 ? cents in the red in the run up to this morning’s USDA Grain Stocks report. The Thursday session ended with nickel gains in corn after a an 8 ? cent range. Preliminary open interest showed more net new buying, but was up only 3,517 contracts this time. Barchart’s cash data shows the ECB basis has fallen from -20c at the start of the month to -37 cents by Thursday. Comparatively the WCB basis dropped a dime during September to -25 cents.?
Ahead of this morning’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report (11 AM CDT) the trade is looking for NASS to report final 22/23 carryout at 1.44 bbu. That would be 13 mbu looser than the WASDE projection. The full range of estimates is to see between 1.32 bbu and 1.51 bbu of corn supplies for Sep 1.?
The weekly FAS report showed 841,783 MT of corn was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 48% for the week and was 44% above the same week last year and was inline with estimates. The report showed Mexico was the top buyer with 261k MT. That set total commitments at 12.57 MMT or 495 mbu.?
Wire sources indicate China may have booked between 500k MT and 1 MMT of Ukrainian corn for Oct-Dec shipment, generating lots of speculation about how they intend to get it delivered.?
?
Dec 23 Corn??closed at $4.88 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents, currently down 1 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash?? was $4.60 7/8, up 5 1/8 cents,
Mar 24 Corn??closed at $5.03 1/4, up 5 cents, currently down 1 1/2 cents
May 24 Corn??closed at $5.11 3/4, up 5 cents, currently down 1 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Beans Fractionally Mixed
Soybeans are currently back to UCNH in early Friday futures activity. The overnight session stayed in a tight 6c range. Front month bean prices settled 2 ? to 4 ? cents lower on Thursday. Preliminary open interest showed net new selling, increasing 6,332 contracts on the lower market. Barchart data showed basis was -68c in the WCB and -61c in the ECB. That is a 24c wider basis than at the start of the month for the ECB, while the WCB has changed little.?Soymeal futures settled $2.30 to $2.60 in the black on Thursday, leaving the October contract at a $4.20 gain for the week so far.?Soybean Oil futures closed the day 108 to 133 points in the red as October now sits 232 points lower for the week.?
The pre-report surveys show traders on average expect 244 mbu of US soybean stocks for Sep 1. If realized that would be 6 mbu tighter than the September WASDE projection. The range of estimates was 216 mbu and 270 mbu. NASS is scheduled to release the quarterly report at 11 central.?
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 672,2123 MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 55% for the week but was down 20% yr/yr and near the low end of the expected range. Soybean commitments were listed at 17.75 MMT or 652.2 mbu. That’s 30% behind last year’s pace. In a related note,? China has indicated to exporters that standard moisture for imported soybeans must be 13% or less, effective December 1.?
Nov 23 Soybeans??closed at $13.00 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents, currently down 1/4 cent
Nearby Cash?? was $12.35 1/1, down 2 7/8 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans??closed at $13.19 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents, currently UNHC
Mar 24 Soybeans??closed at $13.31 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents, currently UNCH
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Wheat Futures Firming on Friday
Wheat prices are firm into the Friday trade session. The Dec SRW contract is 3 cents off the overnight high. Wheat trade pushed lower again on Thursday, again led by the KC market. HRW futures were down by 1.2% across the front months, leaving Dec at a net 26 cent loss for the week and at new lows for the move. Spring wheat futures also posted new lows for the move on Thursday. For Dec the 3 ? cent loss set a new life of contract low. CBT SRW futures also went home in the red, though the session losses were limited to 2 cents across the front months.?
Analysts are looking for NASS to show 1.77 bbu of Sep wheat stocks in the quarterly report slated for 11 AM CDT. That would be 7 mbu tighter yr/yr on a 26 mbu smaller supply via WASDE. For the Small Grains report also slated for Friday, analysts are looking for a 2 mbu reduced production outlook for wheat. The average trade guess is to see 1.732 mbu, though estimates range from 1.689 bbu to 1.757. ?Price action suggests some fear a larger number.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales data listed 544,539 MT of wheat bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was up 77% for the week and was 95% higher yr/yr. Estimates topped out at 500k MT. The data had 192k MT of the total listed as HRS, 183k MT for white, and 112k MT for HRW. Commitments by class show HRS leads with 36% of the total, followed by SRW and white with 22% each. HRW commitments were 18% of the 9.17 MMT total.?
?
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat??closed at $5.78 3/4, down 3/4 cent, currently up 3 cents
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat??closed at $6.06 1/2, down 3/4 cent, currently up 3 cents
Cash SRW Wheat??was $4.92 5/8, down 5/8 cent,
Dec 23 KCBT Wheat??closed at $6.85, down 9 1/2 cents, currently up 2 cents
Cash HRW Wheat??was $6.13 3/8, down 9 1/2 cents,
Dec 23 MGEX Wheat??closed at $7.47, down 3 3/4 cents, currently up 3 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Short Covering Pushed Triple Digit Cattle Rally
Live cattle futures were back up by 0.8% to 1.2% on Thursday. The Dec contract was up $2.25 for the day, limiting the week’s pullback to 92 cents.?Preliminary open interest data shows short covering dominating, dropping 2,779 contracts on the day. USDA confirmed Thursday cash sales from $183 to $185, reporting the bulk of Southern trade near $183 and Northern trade near $184.
Feeder cattle futures also firmed up on Thursday with $0.80 to $2.87 gains for the day. October feeders are still at a net $4.42 loss for the week. September feeder cattle went off the board at $252.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $252.20 on 9/27, down by $1.07.?
USDA’s FAS reported 17,745 MT of beef was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was a 4-wk high and was 17% above the same week last year. Shipments were reported at 15,247 MT for a yearly total of 600k MT. That remains 12% behind last year’s pace.?
The afternoon Wholesale Boxed Beef report showed Choice boxes increased 56 cents to $301.51 and Select was down by $1.07 to $277.44. Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 505,000 head for the week through Thursday. That is 7k head more than last week’s pace, but trails the same week last year by 2k head.?
?
Oct 23 Cattle??closed at $186.500, up $1.600,
Dec 23 Cattle??closed at $190.425, up $2.250,
Feb 24 Cattle??closed at $194.625, up $2.225,
Oct 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $254.725, up $2.475
Nov 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $257.675, up $2.875
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Friday Cotton Market Working Higher
Friday’s cotton session is currently 45 points off the overnight highs but sstill 13 to 30 points in the black. Cotton futures finished the Thursday session with 30 to 50 point gains. That has December at a net 280 point gain for the week. Dec settled over a penny off the session high on Thursday, which at 89.9 cents was just 10 points from the high on Sep 1st. Dec futures are at a net 0.9 point gain for the month with one session remaining.?
USDA reported 23,412 bales were classed in the daily update for 9/28.?
FAS reported 55,323 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 9/21. That was a low for the MY, but was up by 83% yr/yr. Cotton shipments were 159.4k RBs for the week, bringing accumulated exports to 1.35m RBs. That is 26% behind last year’s pace.?
The Cotlook A Index was 10 points lower on 9/27 to 98.25 cents/lb. FSA reduced the AWP for cotton by 2 points for the week to 72.27 cents/lb.?ICE Certified Stocks increased another 2.5k bales to 35,126 as of 9/27. ?
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Dec 23 Cotton??closed at 88.71, up 41 points, currently up 13 points
Mar 24 Cotton??closed at 89.25, up 45 points, currently up 20 points?
May 24 Cotton??closed at 89.53, up 50 points, currently up 19 points
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On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Hogs React to NASS Data on Friday
The front month futures were up triple digits, including a 3.8% rally for the Dec contract, on Thursday heading into the NASS Hogs and Pigs report. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was $74.76, down by $1.86. The ECB quote was $73.61, compared to $75.55 for the WCB. CME’s 9/26 Lean Hog Index dropped another 17 cents to $86.14.?
The Quarterly H&P update showed the hog herd was 74.319m head on September 1st. That was up 0.26% from Sep ’22, compared to the average trade guess for a 1% drop. The breeding herd was lower yr/yr by 1.2%, matching the average trade guess. NASS showed the June-Aug pig crop was 34.229m head, a surprise 0.4% increase yr/yr compared to the 1.4% decrease expected. Pigs/litter jumped to 11.61 vs. 11.13 last year. Farrowing intentions for Sep-Nov were listed as 2.93m head, down 162k (-5.2%), and for Dec-Feb as 2.912m head (-1.4%).?
USDA’s Export Sales report had 27,402 MT of pork bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was 9% lower for the week and was 20% lower yr/yr. Pork shipments were 30k MT for the week, bringing the yearly total to 1.15 MMT.?
Pork cutout futures settled the session $1.32 to $3.07 in the black on Thursday. USDA’s PM National Pork Cutout Value was 84 cents weaker to $96.92.?USDA estimated the FI hog slaughter at 1.923m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.938m last week, and is 1,000 head lighter than the same week last year.?
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Oct 23 Hogs??closed at $83.950, up $1.825,
Dec 23 Hogs??closed at $75.525, up $2.750
Oct 23 Pork Cutout??closed at $93.975, up $1.325,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Triple Digit Rebound for Cattle Market
Live cattle futures were back up by 0.8% to 1.2% on Thursday. The Dec contract was up $2.25 for the day, limiting the week’s pullback to 92 cents.?USDA confirmed Thursday cash sales from $183 to $185, reporting the bulk of Southern trade near $183 and Northern trade near $184.
Feeder cattle futures also firmed up on Thursday with $0.80 to $2.87 gains for the day. October feeders are still at a net $4.42 loss for the week. September feeder cattle went off the board at $252.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $252.20 on 9/27, down by $1.07.?
USDA’s FAS reported 17,745 MT of beef was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was a 4-wk high and was 17% above the same week last year. Shipments were reported at 15,247 MT for a yearly total of 600k MT. That remains 12% behind last year’s pace.?
The afternoon Wholesale Boxed Beef report showed Choice boxes increased 56 cents to $301.51 and Select was down by $1.07 to $277.44. Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 505,000 head for the week through Thursday. That is 7k head more than last week’s pace, but trails the same week last year by 2k head.?
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Oct 23 Cattle??closed at $186.500, up $1.600,
Dec 23 Cattle??closed at $190.425, up $2.250,
Feb 24 Cattle??closed at $194.625, up $2.225,
Oct 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $254.725, up $2.475
Nov 23 Feeder Cattle??closed at $257.675, up $2.875
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cotton Extends the Rally through Thursday
Cotton futures finished the Thursday session with 30 to 50 point gains across the front months. That has December at a net 280 point gain for the week. Dec settled over a penny off the session high on Thursday, which at 89.9 cents was just 10 points from the high on Sep 1st. Dec futures are at a net 0.9 point gain for the month.?
USDA reported 23,412 bales were classed in the daily update for 9/28.?
FAS reported 55,323 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 9/21. That was a low for the MY, but was up by 83% yr/yr. Cotton shipments were 159.4k RBs for the week, bringing accumulated exports to 1.35m RBs. That is 26% behind last year’s pace.?
The Cotlook A Index was 10 points lower on 9/27 to 98.25 cents/lb. FSA reduced the AWP for cotton by 2 points for the week to 72.27 cents/lb.?ICE Certified Stocks increased another r2.5k bales to 35,126 as of 9/27. ?
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Dec 23 Cotton??closed at 88.71, up 41 points,
Mar 24 Cotton??closed at 89.25, up 45 points,
May 24 Cotton??closed at 89.53, up 50 points
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Hogs Add Premium Ahead of USDA Quarterly Report
The front month futures were up triple digits, including a 3.8% rally for the Dec contract on Thursday, heading into the NASS Hogs and Pigs report. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was $74.76, down by $1.86. The ECB quote was $73.61, compared to $75.55 for the WCB. CME’s 9/26 Lean Hog Index dropped another 17 cents to $86.14.?
The Quarterly H&P update showed the hog herd was 74.319m head on September 1st. That was up 0.26% from Sep ’22, compared to the average trade guess for a 1% drop. The breeding herd was lower yr/yr by 1.2%, matching the average trade guess. NASS showed the June-Aug pig crop was 34.229m head, a surprise 0.4% increase yr/yr compared to the 1.4% decrease expected. Pigs/litter jumped to 11.61 vs. 11.13 last year. Farrowing intentions for Sep-Nov were at 2.93m head, down 162k (-5.2%), and for Dec-Feb as 2.912m head (-1.4%).?
USDA’s Export Sales report had 27,402 MT of pork bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was 9% lower for the week and was 20% lower yr/yr. Pork shipments were 30k MT for the week, bringing the yearly total to 1.15 MMT.?
Pork cutout futures settled the session $1.32 to $3.07 in the black on Thursday. USDA’s PM National Pork Cutout Value was 84 cents weaker to $96.92.?USDA estimated the FI hog slaughter at 1.923m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.938m last week, and is 1,000 head lighter than the same week last year.?
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Oct 23 Hogs??closed at $83.950, up $1.825,
Dec 23 Hogs??closed at $75.525, up $2.750
Oct 23 Pork Cutout??closed at $93.975, up $1.325,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Nickel Gain for Corn Futures
The Thursday session ended with nickel gains in corn after a an 8 ? cent range. December futures are now up 11 cents for the week’s move, with Friday (and its USDA Grain Stocks report) to go. Barchart’s cash data shows the ECB basis has fallen from -20c at the start of the month to -37 cents by Thursday. Comparatively the WCB basis dropped a dime during September to -25 cents.?
The weekly FAS report showed 841,783 MT of corn was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 48% for the week and was 44% above the same week last year and was inline with estimates. The report showed Mexico was the top buyer with 261k MT. That set total commitments at 12.57 MMT or 495 mbu. That is 0.7% ahead of last season’s pace. Wire sources indicate China may have booked between 500k MT and 1 MMT of Ukrainian corn for Oct-Dec shipment.?
Ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday the trade is looking for NASS to report final 22/23 carryout at 1.44 bbu. That would be 13 mbu looser than the WASDE projection. The full range of estimates is to see between 1.32 bbu and 1.51 bbu of corn supplies for Sep 1.?
Brazil’s Anec estimated Sep corn shipments at 9.6 MMT, up 2.75 MMT (40%) yr/yr.?
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Dec 23 Corn??closed at $4.88 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash?? was $4.60 7/8, up 5 1/8 cents,
Mar 24 Corn??closed at $5.03 1/4, up 5 cents,
May 24 Corn??closed at $5.11 3/4, up 5 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Soybeans Close Lower on a Wide Ranged Thursday
Front month bean prices settled 2 ? to 4 ? cents lower on Thursday. Nov futures saw a wide 20 cent range and closed 13 ? cents off the session low. Barchart data showed basis was -68c in the WCB and -61c in the ECB. That is a 24c wider basis than at the start of the month for the ECB, while the WCB has changed little.?Soymeal futures settled $2.30 to $2.60 in the black on Thursday, leaving the October contract at a $4.20 gain for the week so far.?Soybean Oil futures closed the day 108 to 133 points in the red as October now sits 232 points lower for the week.?
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 672,2123 MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 55% for the week, but was down 20% yr/yr and near the low end of the expected range. Soybean commitments were listed at 17.75 MMT or 652.2 mbu. That’s 30% behind last year’s pace. Meal sales were reported at 358.8k MT, including 17k MT for old crop and 376k MT for 23/24. New crop meal commitments are at 3.73 MMT or 71% ahead of the same time last year. The week’s BO sales were 4.6k MT for the week – the largest sale since May.?
Safras and Mercado estimates Brazil’s 23/24 soy exports will hit 99 MMT. That is up 1% yr/yr on a projected 6% larger supply – figured at 168.9 MMT.
The pre-report surveys show traders on average expect 244 mbu of US soybean stocks for Sep 1. If realized that would be 6 mbu tighter than the September WASDE projection. The range of estimates was 216 mbu and 270 mbu for that quarterly NASS report on Friday.?
Nov 23 Soybeans??closed at $13.00 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash?? was $12.35 1/1, down 2 7/8 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans??closed at $13.19 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans??closed at $13.31 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cotton Gaining at Midday
Current cotton prices are 73 to 82 points at midday.?
FAS reported 55,323 RBs of cotton was sold for export during the week that ended 9/21. That was a low for the MY, but was up by 83% yr/yr. Cotton shipments were 159.4k RBs for the week, bringing accumulated exports to 1.35m RBs. That is 26% behind last year’s pace.?
The Cotlook A Index was back up by 195 points to 98.35c for 9/28. The Seam reported 5,781 bales were sold on 9/26 for an average gross price of 81.94 cents. The AWP for cotton was 72.29 cents.?ICE Certified Stocks for 9/26 were 32,648 bales.?
Dec 23 Cotton??is at 89.1, up 80 points,
Mar 24 Cotton??is at 89.7, up 90 points,
May 24 Cotton??is at 89.92, up 89 points
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Soybean Futures Mostly Weaker
Current soybean futures are fractionally to 2 ? cents in the red.?Soymeal futures are trading $4 higher at midday.?Soybean Oil futures are currently 114 to 120 points lower.?
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 672,2123 MT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 55% for the week, but was down 20% yr/yr and near the low end of the expected range. Soybean commitments were listed at 17.75 MMT or 652.2 mbu. That’s 30% behind last year’s pace. Meal sales were reported at 358.8k MT, including 17k MT for old crop and 376k MT for 23/24. New crop meal commitments are at 3.73 MMT or 71% ahead of the same time last year. The week’s BO sales were 4.6k MT for the week – the largest sale since May.?
StatsCan reported August’s canola crush was 829k MT, up 31% yr/yr.?Canadian Canola Prices are trading $12 CAD/MT higher through midday.
The pre-report surveys show traders on average expect 244 mbu of soybean stocks for Sep 1. If realized that would be 6 mbu tighter than the September WASDE projection. The range of estimates was 216 mbu and 270 mbu for that quarterly NASS report on Friday.?
Nov 23 Soybeans??are at $13.00, down 3 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash?? is at $12.34 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans??are at $13.19 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans??are at $13.32 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Wheat Futures Weaker at Midday
Wheat prices are currently red through Thursday. CBT is 1 ? to 1 ? cents lower. KC HRW is trading 6 ? to 9 ? cents lower so far. HRS is fractionally to 2 cents lower.?
USDA’s weekly Export Sales data listed 544,539 MT of wheat bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was up 77% for the week and was 95% higher yr/yr. Estimates topped out at 500k MT. The data had 192k MT of the total listed as HRS, 183k MT for white, and 112k MT for HRW. Commitments by class show HRS leads with 36% of the total, followed by SRW and white with 22% each. HRW commitments were 18% of the 9.17 MMT total.?
Wire sources show Egypt booked 170k MT of wheat from Romania and Bulgaria, with Russian offers not competitive. Ukraine wheat was the cheapest, but shipping could not be arranged. Ukraine has exported? 3.16? MMT of wheat since July 1 via a variety of channels. That is up 12% for LY, but corn shipping (tail end of marketing year) has suffered.?
Analysts are looking for NASS to show 1.77 bbu of Sep wheat stocks in the quarterly report on Friday. That would be 7 mbu tighter yr/yr on a 26 mbu smaller supply via WASDE. For the Small Grains report also slated for Friday, analysts are looking for a 2 mbu reduced production outlook for wheat. The average trade guess is to see 1.732 mbu, though estimates range from 1.689 bbu to 1.757.?
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat??is at $5.78 1/2, down 1 cent,
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat??is at $6.06, down 1 1/4 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat??is at $4.91 3/8, down 1 cent,
Dec 23 KCBT Wheat??is at $6.86, down 8 1/2 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat??is at $6.14 1/4, down 8 5/8 cents,
Dec 23 MGEX Wheat??is at $7.49, down 1 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Hogs Rallying Ahead of H&P Report
Thursday hog futures are trading $1.87 to $3.27 so far going into the NASS Hogs and Pigs update USDA’s National Average Base Hog price fell 37 cents to $76.62 on Wednesday afternoon. The Tuesday afternoon quote was $76.88. CME’s 9/25 Lean Hog Index was 39 cents lower to $86.31. ?
USDA’s Export Sales report had 27,402 MT of pork bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was 9% lower for the week and was 20% lower yr/yr. Pork shipments were 30k MT for the week, bringing the yearly total to 1.15 MMT.?
Pork cutout futures are trading $0.35 to $3.07 in the black so far. USDA had the National Pork Carcass Cutout Value 52 cents weaker on Wednesday afternoon to $97.76.?USDA estimates the weekly FI hog slaughter at 1.442m head for the week through Wednesday. That is down by 12k head for the week and is 6k head lower yr/yr.?
Oct 23 Hogs??are at $83.875, up $1.750,
Dec 23 Hogs??are at $75.800, up $3.025
Oct 23 Pork Cutout??is at $93.975, up $1.325,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Cattle Rebounding through Midday
Front month cattle are currently $1.95 to $2.72 higher as they recover from early losses this week. Dec fats are now at a 52 cent loss for the week. Midday feeders are back up by $2.72 to $3.20.?The USDA had 14k head of cash trade for Wednesday’s update, with sales near $183 in the South and $184 in the North. CME’s 9/26 Feeder Cattle Index dropped 63 cents to $253.27.?
USDA’s FAS reported 17,745 MT of beef was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was a 4-wk high and was 17% above the same week last year. Shipments were reported at 15,247 MT for a yearly total of 600k MT. That remains 12% behind last year’s pace.?
USDA’s Wholesale Boxed Beef report had a $1.41 increase for choice in the PM update, as Select fell by 59 cents. USDA estimates the week’s FI cattle slaughter as 381k head through Wednesday. That is up 7k head for the week and is 1,000 more than the same week last year.?
Oct 23 Cattle??are at $186.750, up $1.850,
Dec 23 Cattle??are at $190.750, up $2.575,
Feb 24 Cattle??are at $194.900, up $2.500,
Cash Cattle Index?was $183.000, from $182.48 last week
Sep 23 Feeder Cattle??are at $252.400, up $0.875
Oct 23 Feeder Cattle??are at $254.500, up $2.250
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Corn Prices Currently Higher on Thursday
Midday corn futures are up by 1 ? to 3 ? cents so far for Thursday.?
The weekly FAS report showed 841,783 MT of corn was booked during the week that ended 9/21. That was up 48% for the week and was 44% above the same week last year and was inline with estimates. The report showed Mexico was the top buyer with 261k MT. That set total commitments at 12.57 MMT or 495 mbu. That is 0.7% ahead of last season’s pace.?
Ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks report the trade is looking for NASS to report final 22/23 carryout at 1.44 bbu. That would be 13 mbu looser than the WASDE projection. The full range of estimates is to see between 1.32 bbu and 1.51 bbu of corn supplies for Sep 1.?
EIA reported the average daily ethanol production was 1.009 million barrels during the week that ended 9/22. That was up 29k bpd week to week. Ethanol stocks were 367k barrels looser to 22.048 million.?
Brazil’s Anec estimated Sep corn shipments at 9.6 MMT, up 2.75 MMT (40%) yr/yr.?
Dec 23 Corn??is at $4.87, up 3 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash?? is at $4.59 5/8, up 3 7/8 cents,
Mar 24 Corn??is at $5.01 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,
May 24 Corn??is at $5.10 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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